It was an even money bet for a quite a while that I wasn't going to do an Oscar list this year. I'd pretty much covered things when I went over the Critics Choice Movie Awards, and this award season has generally left a strange taste in my mouth. As a critic, you know that the things you want to win just aren't going to much of the time, sometimes they won't even be nominated, but this year has a particularly odd flavor about it.
Just to kill the suspense at the outset, I decided to go ahead with a list for the peculiar (to me) reason that an astonishing (to me) number of people emailed me, most of them asking what my problem was with taking so long to put up my picks. The whole idea is so baffling that I had no idea what to do with it, except, I suppose, comply.
That out of the way, let me briefly tell you why the year has left me without a lot of interest in the Academy Awards, before I go on to my picks and predictions.
First, there is a flow to a year in movies such that things that happen early in the year can have long range consequences, and this year's flow grew into a strange manifestation of truly unique sentiment that pushed the nominations, and will eventually be the main factor in much of the voting. In some instances, this played out like any other year. Cameron's movie is coming out this year, and Eastwood is directing something. We have some nomination slots locked in there. A Pixar movie is being released, same thing. That's not to say they shouldn't be nominated, but no one actually had to see them before you knew they were going to be. There are a host of nominations working this angle. Along a similar angle, you had people stirring up Bigelow vs. Cameron before either movie had been screened.
This year, there were some new spins on the general buzz as well, and they gained momentum throughout the year. One got its legs (or seemed to) by virtue of Roger Ebert's Brainiac article of July 5th. If you haven't read it, he talks up the role of film critics, and basically calls anyone who liked Transformers 2 an idiot. There was a backlash, and a backlash to the backlash, and for several months there were a lot of articles about how popular things don't win Best Picture (or not since Titanic according to the story), critics are stuffy and out of touch, and yada, yada, yada, Avatar is going to get a lot of "screw you" votes (possibly Inglourious Basterds gets help here as well, as does an actress), and a lot of great movies aren't going to get votes because they are "slow and boring."
Another angle working itself to massive proportions as the year went on is the fact Precious has built-in Politically Incorrect To Not Like It protection.
These, and many other, factors made for a year that simply had an odd, uninviting feel, and it only got worse as the snow began to fly. Now that we're actually here, we get to throw in the usual mix of other irritants, like the awards that go to people because they haven't won in a long time (or ever), whether they deserve them or not.
Just in writing this, I am already even less interested in the awards.
However, if you're still interested, I suppose I'm game. These are in the order presented at the official website.
Keep an eye out for the page navigation... don't think I just quit... although...
Performance by an actor in a leading role
- Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart"
- George Clooney in "Up in the Air"
- Colin Firth in "A Single Man"
- Morgan Freeman in "Invictus"
- Jeremy Renner in "The Hurt Locker"
Prediction: Jeff Bridges is going to win the "Oh my God, he's never won before," award.
Pick: Of the choices available, Colin Firth should win. Jeremy Renner and Jeff Bridges might be second, so it isn't so horrible that Bridges win.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
- Matt Damon in "Invictus"
- Woody Harrelson in "The Messenger"
- Christopher Plummer in "The Last Station"
- Stanley Tucci in "The Lovely Bones"
- Christoph Waltz in "Inglourious Basterds"
Prediction: Christoph Waltz
Pick: Christoph Waltz
It's one of the few surefire choices this year, and if he doesn't win it will be a huge and bizarre upset.
Performance by an actress in a leading role
- Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side"
- Helen Mirren in "The Last Station"
- Carey Mulligan in "An Education"
- Gabourey Sidibe in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
- Meryl Streep in "Julie & Julia"
Prediction: Meryl Streep. It's been too long, and the voters are going to give it to her. There is some chance that Bullock might get it somehow, but it will go down as one of the most ridiculous things to ever happen if it does.
Pick: Carey Mulligan. This should be as much of a no-brainer as Waltz, but no one saw the film anyway, and it means not voting for Meryl Streep.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
- Penélope Cruz in "Nine"
- Vera Farmiga in "Up in the Air"
- Maggie Gyllenhaal in "Crazy Heart"
- Anna Kendrick in "Up in the Air"
- Mo'Nique in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Prediction: Mo'Nique. That's a no-brainer prediction, because you know that's how people are going to vote.
Pick: I liked Vera Farmiga a great deal, and I'm happy Maggie Hyllenhaal got nominated, especially since she missed out at the CCMAs, but only Mo'Nique is actually in the top 10 when it comes to supporting actress performances this year, so I sort of have to pick her by default.
© 2010, Are You Screening?. All rights reserved. Reprinting without express permission of the author is prohibited.
About Marc Eastman
Marc Eastman is the owner and operator of Are You Screening? and has been writing film reviews for over a decade, and several branches of the internet's film review world have seen his name. His reviews have brought him personal praise from the director of a major motion picture, and have been used as required reading in a course at a major University. These priceless rewards, along with just bags of cash, keep him from straying from freelance writing. He is also a member of The Broadcast Film Critics Association and The Broadcast Television Journalists Association.
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